My dad, 1949.
Yesterday, I was at my favorite café watching the stream of families treating their Dads. This Father’s Day, like Mother’s Day a month ago, was filled with laughter and expressions of love. I saw soon to be fathers cuddling with their wives, new fathers doting over their babies, fathers having conversations with their children, and senior fathers enjoying their adult children with their kids. These are the times that build bonds of love and family memories. These moments are too precious to be taken for granted.
Later at home, listening to the news shows, I felt a chill. Will 2020’s, Mother’s and Father’s Days be happy occasions? If things continue as they are, there will be missing parents, daughters and sons, siblings, cousins, and friends. Some will be serving in harms way, some will be living in hospitals with terrible wounds, and some will not return.
Is this our future? It doesn’t have to be. I’m 72 years old and I’ve seen this before, such as in, Viet Nam and Iraq 2003. Everyday people can change the course of history, once they know what is going on.
Currently, the President of the United States is trying to goad a small but tough country, Iran, into war. Trump, like George W. Bush, thinks that we will overwhelm them with massive military power, and the war will be short, relatively bloodless. History clearly says NO. Bush’s Iraq War was not short nor bloodless. Bush and his Administration were told repeatedly that a war would destabilize the entire mid-East and increase Iran’s influence. All of which has happened, including deadly surprises like the birth of Al Qaeda and ISIS.
Today, we live with this poisoned legacy. And now, once again, we are being steered towards another bloodbath with our Fathers and Mothers being offered up as cannon fodder.
It’s always a good idea to see who are the losers and winners.
Loser: the American people.
We will be the ones paying with our blood and grief. Our nation will be far less secure from Iranian attacks here at home. There is also the threat that Russia, North Korea, or China might launch cyberwar against us. Our freedoms, already under attack, will be destroyed.
Loser: Europe and Japan.
War will create a world-wide oil/gas shortage putting our long-time allies at the mercy of the Russians both economically as well as militarily.
Loser: Iran.
Its economy has been throttled by an American embargo lasted 41 years. War would destroy not just military targets but civilian infrastructure. The Iranian people would be reduced to the starvation and misery that we see in Yemen. This threat has driven Iran much closer to Russia. Modern Russian military equipment has begun showing up in Iran. These weapons, along with Russian trainers, are a serious threat to our aircraft and ships. The Iranians are tough, as shown by the war between Iraq and Iran in the 1980’s, in which hundreds of thousands died. The Iranian people can take horrible losses and severe deprivation yet continue to fight on.
These are not people we want to fight. We’ll beat them, but the price will be far greater than predicted, outweighing any possible gains. War would further discredit the US in the eyes of the world.
Iran has plenty of legitimate reasons not to trust or like us. The current crisis is because Trump broke promises the US made to Iran in a binding international nuclear agreement. Trump re-imposed the embargo for no legitimate reason. Iran has been and continues, for the moment, adhering to their pledges to halt nuclear development.
In 1953, the US manufactured a coup after the Iranian people, in a free election, chose Mohammad Mosaddeq for Prime Minister. He was a reformer who wanted to end government corruption brought by US and European oil companies. Mosaddeq was replaced by the Shah, a man who had spent most of his life in Europe and little contact with average Iranians. He ruled as a dictator for 20 years, becoming fabulously wealthy at the cost of the Iranian people. In this heated atmosphere both the US and Iran made mistakes that resulted in the Iranian Hostage Crisis and the imposition of the original embargo in 1979.
Winner: Russia.
War or not, Russia has already benefited. If war, the old Russian Bear can turn Iran, Iraq and Syria into one massive meat grinder for American troops, using proxy troops and supplying modern weapons. In the 1970s, Russia fell into the same that trap in Afghanistan when they fought US backed Islamic Jihadis who later became al Qaeda and ISIS.
Winner: Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia, home of 15 of the 19, 911 hijackers. The Saudi Royal Family and the jihadist Wahabi sect will benefit. The destruction of Iran would make the Saudi’s unchallenged leaders of the Sunni world and oppressor of the Shia minority. Control of the Iranian oil fields increases Saudi Arabia’s leverage against Europe and Japan who depend on them for energy.
Winner: Trump, the Oil and Gas Industry, Republicans, and Russia.
War spreads fear and pushes us into an Us-Against-Them mindset which can be manipulated resulting in turning us against ourselves, leading to the loss of our freedoms, like Freedom of Speech. This is already happening. The goal of Republicans, since Newt Gingrich, has been to capture the US government and never let it go again. In essence making the US a single party system like other dictatorships around the world.
Exxon Mobile, Koch and the rest of the fossil fuel industry will get even more rich and powerful. A war in the Persian Gulf would stop the flow of energy to the rest of the world. Even Saudi Arabia would be forced to reduce output. This opens the world market to US and Russian oil and gas.
The rich and powerful become more rich and powerful. Rest of us get grief and exploitation.
Now is the time for us to be extremely skeptical of any claims by Trump and his Administration. In both the Viet Nam and 2nd Irag wars, threats were concocted to justifying our fighting. History has shown that the reasons given were lies.
Now, Iran is in our crosshairs and again extremely dubious claims are being made against Iran. For instance, recently claims have been made that small highspeed Iranian boats have placed magnet mines on the hulls of several ships in the Persian Gulf. However, there are reasons to disbelieve the reports.
The mines appear to have been placed above on the outer hulls above the water line. Explosions above the water line of a double hulled tanker can cause impressive fires but the ship will not sink. Luckily, one mine failed to explode, and a boat came out to retrieve it. We have been told that the mines and boat were Iranian. How do we know? Military materials can be stolen or faked which is a favorite tactic of False Flag operations, where the aggressor makes it look like the victim started it.
The same goes for the boat and crew. They could have been Saudi’s for all we know.
And there is an eyewitness’s claim that it was a low flying object that struck one of the ships and not a mine.
Where are we getting our information about this and other incidents? From the President and his appointees in the CIA and State Department. The last 3 years have shown that the President is a Liar and the members of his administration are liars too. The last thing Americans should do is take the current Trump government’s claims about anything, particularly in matters of war. Sending our fathers and mothers off to war requires truthfulness and thoughtful deliberation. Our President doesn’t want that. He and his allies want to stampede us into a catastrophic war where the American people suffer while the rich and powerful go on as usual.